In June 2024, unfree and unfair elections will be held in Venezuela. Nevertheless, the democratic opposition is taking on the authoritarian regime of Nicolás Maduro, who will pull out all the stops in the oil state to stay in power. The opposition has learnt the hard way that a boycott is counterproductive.
1: Thirteen cards for Maduro
At the top left is the autocratic ruling party PSUV. It is proposing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro for re-election. The front row consists of nine other smaller and larger parties that also support him.
The PSUV was founded by Hugo Chávez, who undermined the rule of law and subjugated the most important state institutions. The electoral authority is also compromised. The question is not whether the autocracy will use dirty tricks, but which ones.
Its general strategy is divide and rule: It abuses the levers of power to make it impossible for the democratic opposition to participate in elections or to confuse voters. At the same time, it encourages wild candidacies by corrupt opportunists or splinter groups. Again, divide and conquer.
2: Not even a ticket for the real opposition candidate
The united coalition of democratic opposition parties has this map here, the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica. These days they call it the Unified Platform, but hey, you take what you get… Their actual candidate is María Corina Machado - but she was denied the right to participate in these elections. She then tried to put up a substitute candidate, who was also rejected.
Finally, after several attempts, the opposition succeeded in registering a previously unknown diplomat: Edmundo González. The opposition’s strategy is now to unite all votes behind this unity candidate. It wants to achieve a clear victory at the ballot box and verify the votes by deploying its own election observers so that the autocracy cannot secretly falsify the election.
Some of this has already proved successful: Since registration, two other opposition parties have supported Edmundo González. Machado has also been able to transfer much of her popularity to González. According to the polls, he would currently receive about twice as many votes as Maduro.
3: Takeover of opposition parties by the regime
But the autocracy has other levers at its disposal. Let’s take a look at the remaining candidates, who, according to the polls, together account for only around 5% of the vote.
The main parties behind the united opposition coalition are Machado’s Vente Venezuela party, which has not been allowed to register as a political party since 2015, then Voluntad Popular, Primero Justicia, Acción Democratica, COPEI…
But the regime ‘intervened’ with these parties. In other words, the Venezuelan Supreme Court arbitrarily removed the actual leaders of these parties. They were replaced by opportunists and corrupt individuals who now appear on the ballot as candidates of these parties. Such politicians, who claim to be independent but in reality collaborate with the autocracy, are often referred to as ‘alacránes’, or scorpions. The names of these false candidates are:
- Daniel Ceballos at Voluntad Popular
- Luis Eduardo Martínez at Acción Democrática
- José Brito with Primero Venezuela, which is actually called Primero Justicia
- Juan Carlos Alvarado at COPEI (candidature withdrawn for Luis Eduardo Martínez)
The ousted, real leaders of these parties support the unity opposition and Edmundo Gonzalez. Incidentally, the regime also intervened with the Communist Party of Venezuela because it did not want to support Maduro.
4: Wild candidates get easy access
But that’s not all: while the unity opposition was only just given a ticket with a replacement candidate of the actual candidate’s replacement candidate, a number of smaller wild candidacies were granted easy access. It is perhaps not surprising that these third party candidates are preaching a path of reconciliation, promising the end of polarisation, overcoming conflict, etc. - while at the same time a dictatorship is being established.
The most important personalities are the comedian Benjamín Rausseo, the popular pastor Javier Bertucci and the lawyer Antonio Ecarri.
- Benjamín Rausseo is in competition with Conde. He is a comedian and initially took part in the MUD primaries, but then withdrew. He also wants to run an election campaign without ‘hate’ or revenge.
- Javier Bertucci from El Cambio is a popular evangelical pastor and is curiously supported by the government.
- Antonio Ecarri of Lápiz presents himself as a great conciliator and strives for equidistance from the government (‘the worst government in the history of Venezuela’) and the opposition (‘also a disaster’). The opposition characterises him as
4: Wild candidates get easy access
But that’s not all: while the unity opposition was only just given a ticket with a replacement candidate of the actual candidate’s replacement candidate, a number of smaller wild candidacies were granted easy access. It is perhaps not surprising that these third party candidates preach a path of reconciliation, promise the end of polarisation, the overcoming of conflict, etc. - while at the same time a dictatorship is being established.
The most important personalities are the comedian Benjamín Rausseo, the popular pastor Javier Bertucci and the lawyer Antonio Ecarri.
- Benjamín Rausseo is in competition with Conde. He is a comedian and initially took part in the MUD primaries, but then withdrew. He also wants to run an election campaign without ‘hate’ or revenge.
- Javier Bertucci from El Cambio is a popular evangelical pastor and is curiously supported by the government.
- Antonio Ecarri of Lápiz presents himself as a great conciliator and strives for equidistance from the government (‘the worst government in the history of Venezuela’) and the opposition (‘also a disaster’). The opposition describes him as corrupt and is making a big fuss about the fact that Maduro invited him to the Miraflores presidential palace.
- Claudio Fermín from Soluciones (H48) also wants to ‘end the polarisation’. He has been active in politics for a long time.
- Enrique Márquez from Centrados (E35) is a genuine opposition figure and wants to ‘overcome’ the conflict. He did not support the MUD’s election boycott in 2018, which turned out to be a mistake, and was subsequently expelled from Nuevo Tiempo. Now he thinks Machado’s disqualification was unfair - but now the field is open again. Nevertheless, he says that he would withdraw his candidacy if there was another candidate who had a better chance against Maduro. Let’s see if he keeps his promise.